I spent this afternoon at the Mandalay Bay for two pre-CES 2015 talks, led by Shawn Dubrayvac Ph.D. (author of Digital Destiny) and Steve Koenig, Director of Industry Analysis at Consumer Electronics Association.
[Shawn Dubrayvac]
Four trends to watch were introduced during Shawn’s hour-long talk:
– Digitization of our Physical Space
– Permeation of Logic
– The Internet of ME
– Fragmented Innovation
Digitization of our Physical Space
Motion sensors have rapidly become mainstream. We’re now starting to see it in countries such as Ethiopia, where electricity doesn’t exist.
Digitization is now being captured through sensor motion. From surfboards to baby onesies, info is currently monitored via Bluetooth straight to your mobile device.
We’re now shifting to what’s technologically meaningful — the question isn’t whether we can digitize it, but should we digitize it? Are the objects being digitized changing the way we work or live, influencing the physical space?
In 2013, 77,000 4K UltraHD TV’s were sold in the US. In 2014, that number climbed to 1.3 million units, and 4 million is the projected release number this year. Drones will digitize our physical airspace (sales of 500,000 units are projected for this year).
Which leads us to the key theme for 2015: Once it’s possible, what’s the user-case scenario?
Smart watches are digitizing the physical space on our wrists, but does it make sense to digitize the wrist? This experiment has led to a resounding yes, as CES will see a four-fold increase in size at the CES trade show spaces.
Permeation of Logic: If this…then that…
The voice is becoming a key feature in many products being developed lately. Adaptive customization means adapting to information, and CES is a proving ground for adaptive experiences.
Predictive customization redefines recommendation. Google started this trend with the “I’m feeling lucky” option for online searches. As systems get access to digital information, predictive customization gets better as well.
[Hugo Gernsback, 1963 wearable TV?]
The Internet of ME
Smartphones finally surpassed computer users last year and 2015 will see a defining year for virtual reality. Facebook saw the potential and purchased Oculus Rift; VR is set to become a major player.
Holograms, haptics (the science of touch), and eye tracking continue the trends on how we interact with computers.
Fragmented Innovation
During the last 10 years, the focus has been on devices owned by 60-80% of households. Now the focus is on a 20-30% market saturation, spreading out digitization. A greater array of innovation has been spread out across a broader range of products. A few questions we can ask are:
– What to digitize next?
– Where do we embed and deploy sensors?
– What is the user-case scenario?
For example, smartphone cameras now include two sensors, as component supplies have moved from scarcity to surplus.
[Steve Koenig]
Steve Koenig next analyzed tech markets in mature versus developing countries. Emerging sectors such as the Czech Republic, Poland, and Asia Pacific are quickly overtaking North America and Western Europe’s markets.
Smartphones remain the spending driver, according to tech forecaster Koenig. He compared the landscape to The Magnificent Seven, comparing the seven major players (digital still cameras, tablets, desk PC’s, mobile PC’s, LCD TV’s, mobile phones, smartphones) to the movie of the same name. Perhaps the smartphone, at the forefront, could best be compared to Yul Brynner’s role!
These seven components form an important group; smaller products will either stagnate or decline. Almost half of global tech spending will be divided between smartphones and tablets. Whether this continues into the future is the question.
A host of new innovations will renew the tech spending landscape, including:
– Smart home technology
– Smart watches
– Health and Fitness technology
– Automotive technology
Low-cost handsets are starting to flood the marketplace, with more than one third produced in China alone. Smartphone sales are starting to soften due to the influence of these low-cost products; Apple and Samsung are beginning to feel the pressure.
The Xiaomi Mi5 is one such player. As well, lower-cost tablet models, coupled with more screen sizes are driving soft revenues for tablets.
[CES Unveiled]
Larger screen TV’s are on the climb. 60 is the new 50. A robust global upgrade cycle is the major factor here; 40” is the global average size TV. 4k Ultra HD TV’s will be huge at CES, and China will account for the majority of shipments. Curved TV’s are just starting to grow.
And with that, we were off to CES Unveiled, a chance to check out several products showcased to press over the course of three hours, including cocktails, hors d’oeuvres, and a wonderful array of divine sweets.
[CES Unveiled]
I’ll be creating a video from my CES Unveiled experience post-CES and will add a link to this post when it’s complete. For now, I’m going to focus on more press events and the big show ahead!
